NBU Governor outlines the main challenges the NBU will face if the war continues in 2024

Andriy Pyshnyi, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, spoke about the main challenges the NBU will face if the war continues in 2024. According to the International Monetary Fund, the active phase of the conflict may last until the first half of 2024, and in case of a worst-case scenario, the IMF envisages an increase in financial support for Ukraine.

Pyshnyi noted that the situation is currently in the realm of uncertainty, which is beyond the control of the NBU, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are successfully reducing its impact. Nevertheless, the NBU constantly takes this uncertainty into account when developing forecasts, making decisions, and communicating with partners. According to the IMF, the active phase of the war may last until the first half of 2024, but if the conflict continues and becomes even more difficult, Ukraine may need more financial assistance.

In the most pessimistic scenario, the IMF envisages an increase in the financial support package from $115 billion to $140 billion. If the war is prolonged and complicated, the NBU will have to maintain tight monetary conditions for a long period of time.

It is important for the NBU to be able to make decisions and take action immediately after events that lead to shocks. The NBU has experience and expertise in maintaining macrofinancial stability in times of war, which it continues to develop and deepen. Therefore, the NBU Governor is confident that Ukraine has sufficient reserves of resilience to win, recover, and ensure a free and quality life in the future.