Forecasts of Russian gas exports to the EU: sharp decline

Russian natural gas exports to the European Union are expected to drop sharply this year, by two-thirds compared to last year. According to The Guardian, this situation will lead to a reduction in exports by 21 billion cubic meters of gas, which is almost two-thirds of the volume sent to the EU last year and more than six times less than in 2021.

The total volume of Russian natural gas exports is projected to decline this year to 100 billion cubic meters, down from 131 billion cubic meters at the beginning of the year. In particular, the volume of gas exports to Europe has already decreased this year by about 17.7 billion cubic meters.

This dramatic change was the result of Europe's refusal to purchase Russian oil and gas after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The European Union was able to overcome the energy crisis of winter 2022/2023 thanks to alternative natural gas suppliers, in particular, liquefied natural gas suppliers.

According to forecasts, Russian gas exports to Europe may decline to 15 billion cubic meters in 2026, and this situation may remain unchanged due to infrastructure constraints that limit the increase in gas supplies to Asia.

It should be noted that the European Union is committed to a firm course in implementing the new REPOWER energy strategy, which provides for a complete rejection of Russian gas. In order to achieve energy independence, the EU plans to diversify energy sources from reliable suppliers, including increasing supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States.