The forecast of the Ministry of Finance for 2024: UAH 41.4 to the dollar

The Ministry of Finance and business representatives in Ukraine have issued a joint forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate in 2024, expecting it to weaken. The forecast assumes that the hryvnia exchange rate will be 41.4 hryvnia to one dollar.

This was announced during the event "EBA Global Outlook: The New Economy of Ukraine" event, which took place recently, Ekonomichna Pravda reports.

According to the forecasts, the hryvnia is expected to cross the 41 hryvnia to the dollar mark for the first time.

Ukraine's Finance Minister Sergiy Marchenko said that the government plans to set the exchange rate at 41.4 hryvnia to the dollar for 2024. He also noted that the weakening of the hryvnia is a worrying factor and there are no fundamental reasons for its strengthening.

This forecast of the Ministry of Finance is in line with the expectations of businesses in Ukraine. The European Business Association also forecasts the hryvnia exchange rate at 41 hryvnia to the dollar for the next year.

It should be noted that the foreign exchange market is expected to be more active in the near future, as the National Bank of Ukraine is scheduled to hold a meeting on September 14 to consider whether to maintain or reduce the key policy rate. This decision may affect the hryvnia exchange rate: a higher rate may result in a slower flow of hryvnia into foreign currency, which could lead to a depreciation of the national currency.

Taking into account even possible fluctuations after the regulator's decision, it is expected that this week the dollar will fluctuate between 37.2-38.4 hryvnia per dollar, and the euro will remain in the range of 40.2-41.2 hryvnia per euro.

In addition, the Ukrainian government plans to draft the state budget for 2024 by September 15, but it is not yet known what hryvnia/dollar exchange rate will be taken into account in this budget.