Exports of Ukrainian wheat and corn: updated forecasts

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecasts for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports for the marketing year 2023/24. According to the updated data, wheat exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons to 15.0 million tons, and corn exports by 2 million tons to 23.0 million tons. These forecasts have become an important signal for Ukrainian farmers and the economy as a whole.

According to the press service of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, wheat and corn production in Ukraine remains stable at 23.4 million tons and 30.5 million tons, respectively. However, due to the increase in exports, Ukrainian farmers are getting new opportunities to expand their markets and increase their income.

The updated forecast of the global wheat market foresees growth in both production and consumption, but a decrease in ending stocks. Global wheat production increased by 0.8 million tons, mainly due to growth in Iraq and Argentina. The forecast for global consumption also increased by 1.1 million tons, especially due to increased consumption in India.

The USDA foresees an increase in global wheat trade by 1.2 million tons, which is a positive signal for exporters, in particular for Ukraine, Argentina and Australia. However, the projected ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered, which indicates an overall increase in demand for wheat and supports high prices on world markets.

As for corn, production, trade, and ending stocks are forecast to decline. World corn production is projected to be lower by 3.2 million tons, mainly due to a decrease in Brazil and Mexico. Projected ending stocks are also down, indicating strong demand for this product.

It should be noted that Ukraine is already actively utilizing its potential as a grain exporter. Since the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year, it has exported 25.2 million tons of grains and pulses, including wheat, barley, and corn. Expanding markets and government support are contributing to further export growth and development of the Ukrainian agricultural sector.