Forecasts for the Ukrainian agricultural sector

In 2024, the Ukrainian agricultural sector faces a projected decline in the harvest of grains and oilseeds to 76.1 million tons. This is due to a decrease in planted areas due to unfavorable global price conditions and high export logistics costs.

According to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), the forecasted decline in harvest is subject to change depending on weather conditions in spring and summer, which may affect yields.

The main reductions in planted areas will affect grain crops, leading to a potential decrease in exports to 43.7 million tons in the new 2024/2025 season. For example, wheat production in 2024 could reach 20 million tons (compared to 22 million tons in 2023), with potential exports of 13 million tons.

Corn production and exports are also projected to decline due to a decrease in planted areas and low prices on the global market. Corn production in 2024 is expected to reach 26.3 million tons, down 3 million tons from the previous year, with potential exports of about 20.5 million tons.

At the same time, sunflower may show a smaller crop loss, with production at 13.7 million tons and exports of up to 250 thousand tons. This may be due to lesser influence of external factors on the cultivation of this crop.

Soybeans remain the most positive element in the forecast. According to the UGA, soybean production may increase to 5.5 million tons, which is 0.6 million tons more than in the previous year, with exports of up to 4 million tons.

In general, a decrease in the harvest in 2024 could pose serious challenges for Ukraine's agricultural sector, especially given the economy's high dependence on agricultural exports. Implementation of risk management strategies and search for new markets may be important factors for maintaining stability in the country's agriculture.