The drought in July led to a decrease in harvest forecasts in Ukraine

In Ukraine, farmers are once again forced to revise their crop forecasts for 2024 due to abnormally hot and dry weather in July. According to the latest data of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), the potential harvest of grain and oil crops decreased by 2.8 million tons to 71.8 million tons. In 2023, the harvest was 82.8 million tons.

The drought that gripped Ukraine in July seriously affected the yield of late grain and oil crops, which was the main reason for the decline in forecasts. According to new estimates, grain exports in the 2024/2025 season will amount to 41 million tons, which is 2.5 million tons less than previous forecasts. It could also lead to a drop in exports of more than 16 million tonnes compared to last season.

Individual crops were affected to varying degrees by the drought. The 2024 wheat harvest is forecast at 19.8 million tons, with potential exports of about 13 million tons. The barley harvest is expected at 4.95 million tons, 350 thousand tons more than the previous estimate, with potential exports of about 2 million tons.

However, the situation with corn is less optimistic. The drought-hit corn crop is expected at 23.4 million tons, down 2.1 million tons from the previous estimate. Potential export can amount to about 18.5 million tons.

The sunflower harvest is forecast at 12.8 million tons, which is 900,000 tons less than the previous estimate. Potential export can be up to 250,000 tons. The rapeseed harvest is expected at 4.3 million tons, with potential exports of 3.4 million tons.

Despite the increase in the area under soybeans, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow to achieve the desired results. UZA expects a soybean harvest at the level of 4.8 million tons, which is 700 thousand tons less than the previous estimate. The potential export of soybeans can amount to 3.5 million tons.