Assessment of gas demand for new distributed generation in Ukraine: challenges and prospects

With the approach of the winter period in Ukraine, the question arises regarding the amount of natural gas needed to support the operation of the new distributed generation. According to the general director of D.Trading company Dmytro Malyar, about 1 billion cubic meters of gas will be needed to ensure the operation of 1 GW of new generation during the five months of the heating season. This assessment was given as part of a discussion at the "Ukrainian Gas Open" 2024 forum and became the subject of an article published on Delo.ua.

Malyar emphasized that the development of distributed generation can lead to a significant increase in gas consumption in the winter period. If we take into account the declared volume of 1 GW, gas consumption may increase to 200 million cubic meters per month, which is a total of 1 billion cubic meters for the entire heating season.

An additional factor that may affect gas consumption in Ukraine is the possible launch of the Odesa port plant, which uses gas as a technological raw material for the production of mineral fertilizers. This may further increase the load on the country's gas transportation system.

However, experts express certain doubts about the significant impact of the new distributed generation on the total volume of gas consumption in the country. According to Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs of the Razumkov Center, plans for the development of decentralized gas generation do exist, but their implementation will take considerable time. In his opinion, by winter business and municipalities will be able to build gas power plants with a capacity of 150-200 MW, which will not have a significant impact on the overall gas consumption.

Serhiy Makogon, the former head of the GTS Operator of Ukraine, also shares the opinion that the installation of a significant amount of gas capacities in Ukraine is not expected this year. However, even with the appearance of new generation, it will not create serious problems with a lack of gas in winter. The new generation will replace the destroyed thermal power plants, which previously also used gas to produce electricity.

In conclusion, although the new distributed generation has the potential to become a significant gas consumer in the future, its impact on the country's total consumption will be limited in the short term. Experts emphasize the importance of preparing for the heating season, but without panicking, because key market players anticipate the possibility of meeting Ukraine's gas needs even under conditions of additional load.