FAO lowers global cereal production forecast in 2024 due to adverse weather conditions

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) revised its forecast for world grain production in 2024, reducing it by 2.8 million tons compared to July estimates. This decrease is due to the deterioration of forecasts for the harvest of fodder grains. According to the new data, the volume of grain production in 2024 may amount to 2.851 billion tons, which is close to last year's level.

FAO said the new forecast for feed grain production in 2024 would be 1.523 billion tonnes, down 7 million tonnes from July estimates and 9.4 million tonnes (0.6%) below 2023 figures. The main reasons for lowering the forecast are the negative impact of hot and dry weather conditions on the harvest in the European Union, Mexico and Ukraine.

According to the updated FAO forecast, the volume of world grain trade for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 485.6 million tons, which is 4.5 million tons more than the July estimate, but 3.3% lower than the previous season. At the same time, the forecast volume of feed grain trade in the current season has increased by 2 million tons compared to the July forecast.

The revision of the grain trade forecast is due mainly to an increase in the corn trade forecast. Corn exports from the US are expected to increase due to growth in projected production, as well as increased demand from Mexico and Vietnam.

The forecast volume of wheat trade for the 2024/25 season was also raised by 1.2 million tonnes to 199.4 million tonnes. This increase is due to an expected increase in wheat supplies from Kazakhstan and the United States, which have larger harvests than previously forecast, as well as increased purchases from the countries of the European Union.

Thus, the decrease in the total volume of grain production is partially compensated by the growth of trade in some types of grain, which indicates a difficult but dynamic situation in the world agricultural market.