Export of Ukrainian corn: forecasts and challenges

Against the backdrop of a decline in the corn harvest both in Ukraine and in South America, interest in Ukrainian products has grown significantly. This season has become a challenge for importers, who are actively responding to increased demand, while the supply from Ukrainian farmers remains limited, mainly due to the activity of agricultural holdings. According to the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, 200,000 tons of corn were exported in September, and the main volumes are expected in the following months — October, November, and December.

In the last marketing year, Ukraine exported about 30 million tons of corn, but this year a significant decrease is expected due to reduced stocks. Forecasts indicate a harvest at the level of 21-22 million tons, of which a significant part will be used in the domestic market. The export potential is estimated at 15-17 million tons, which is almost half of last year's volume.

High demand for Ukrainian corn is maintained on world markets, especially in Europe. For example, Spain significantly increased its purchases, which affected the rise in prices to $222-224 per ton, compared to the starting $215. Portugal also joined this process, strengthening the demand for Ukrainian corn in its market.

However, Ukrainian corn competes with American products, which are offered $2-3 per ton cheaper, which forces importers, particularly from Spain, to consider alternatives in November and December. According to the latest forecasts, corn prices may continue to rise in the second half of the season, reaching $200-205 per ton by the end of the year, and spring prices may even rise to $220-230. However, it is expected that the next 2-3 weeks may lead to a temporary drop in prices to $175-178 per ton.

This season turned out to be difficult in the context of changing market conditions and active competitive pressure from other major corn exporters, but Ukrainian producers have every chance to cope with these challenges thanks to high product quality and active support from global markets.