Business expects growth in business activity and inflation: results of the NBU survey

According to the results of the third quarter of 2024, Ukrainian enterprises improved their forecasts regarding business activity for the next 12 months, despite military challenges and economic instability. According to the results of the research conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine, the business expectations index (BII) increased to 100.6%, which exceeds the previous indicator of 99.5% for the II quarter of this year.

Survey participants are cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook, expecting moderate growth in inflation and exchange rates. These factors, along with other macroeconomic indicators, remain key to assessing the state of business in Ukraine.

Positive expectations relate primarily to an increase in the total volume of product sales and an increase in investment costs for equipment and material resources. At the same time, enterprises moderated their negative estimates regarding capital expenditures for construction, which indicates the gradual recovery of this sector.

However, not all indicators showed improvement. Business representatives have worsened the forecasts regarding the financial condition of their enterprises in the future, and also expect a reduction in the number of employees. This may indicate the persistence of a difficult economic situation on the labor market and the need to adapt to new realities.

Military actions and their consequences for the economy remain the main factor preventing the increase of production volumes. Despite a certain reduction in the impact of this factor compared to previous months, business also points to growing problems related to tax changes, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign currencies, and an increase in production costs.

In general, the NBU survey showed that enterprises are ready for new challenges, but expect further changes in economic policy that would contribute to stability and support of the investment climate in Ukraine.