Expected peak in wheat prices in Ukraine: forecasts for winter 2025

According to analysts of the agricultural cooperative "PUSK", which operates within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR), the largest increase in prices for Ukrainian wheat is expected in January and February 2025. The relevant information was published by the VAR press service.

Despite some restraint among importers, Ukrainian traders continue to demonstrate stable export potential. As of January 13, 2025, Ukraine had already exported about 400 thousand tons of wheat. According to experts, this figure may increase to 1 million tons by the end of February. Given the restrictions on the world market, in particular quotas and restrictions on the export of Russian wheat, Ukrainian exports remain stable.

One of the important factors affecting prices is the reduction in Russian wheat exports. Traders are gradually increasing their offers, and wheat prices at Ukrainian ports at the beginning of 2025 fluctuate within $ 220-225 per ton. It is expected that in January and February, wheat prices may reach a maximum, and the price for the third grade of wheat may reach $ 230 per ton.

In particular, in Ukraine, the highest wheat prices are traditionally observed in January and February, which, combined with export restrictions and global factors, creates conditions for an increase in cost. In particular, under the terms of the memorandum between the Ukrainian Grain Association and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, wheat exports in 2025 will not exceed 16.2 million tons, which will contribute to stability in the domestic market.

The domestic market is also supported by a competitive environment between flour mills and exporters, which stimulates prices. In particular, on the domestic market, prices for wheat of grades 2-3 vary from 9,500 to 10,300 hryvnias per ton, depending on the volume of batches. This also contributes to maintaining a stable price increase throughout the winter.

Thus, Ukrainian farmers and traders will be able to take advantage of stable demand for wheat in the first months of 2025. However, the factor of export restrictions from Russia and other global economic factors that may affect the development of the market situation remains important.