Ukrainian banks expect growth in client funds and an increase in the cost of deposits — NBU report

In the second quarter of 2025, Ukrainian banks predict an inflow of funds from clients, primarily from the population, and also expect a further increase in the cost of liabilities. This is evidenced by the results of the quarterly survey of the National Bank of Ukraine on bank funding.

In the first quarter, financial institutions recorded a slight decrease in corporate deposits, while the growth of population deposits became a noticeable trend. Banks believe that individuals will be the main source of growth in client funds in the coming months.

In addition, institutions, which together cover 42% of the banking market, plan to attract wholesale funding over the next year. This includes resources for participation in recovery projects financed by the European Union and other international partners of Ukraine.

Most banks noted that the cost of funds attracted from clients increased in the first quarter, especially for the corporate sector. At the same time, wholesale funding rates remained almost unchanged. Almost all respondents predict a further increase in the price of deposits for both businesses and households in the second quarter.

The share of funding in foreign currency in the banking system remained stable. However, a large part of institutions, which own 41% of the assets of the entire sector, expect a gradual decrease in this share, which indicates an orientation towards domestic funding in hryvnia.

The survey also revealed a reduction in the maturity of funding, i.e. banks are increasingly attracting funds for a shorter term. At the same time, about half of market participants expect that the situation will change in the next 12 months and the average term of attracted resources will increase. Another positive fact is that most banks have increased their capital over the past year, and this dynamics, according to their forecasts, will continue in the future.

Banks call profitability the main factor in capital growth. About 12% of institutions are already planning to increase capital over the next year, although they acknowledge that its cost is increasing. At the same time, most market players expect the upward trend to continue in the future.