The global oil market is showing a sensitive reaction to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. Against the background of a possible deepening of the escalation in the region, which is of strategic importance for global oil production, oil prices have risen. Analysts warn that hostilities could disrupt oil supplies and cause significant fluctuations in the energy market.

According to Reuters, Brent crude futures rose by 34 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $73.57 per barrel, while US WTI crude rose by 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $72.06. During previous trading, both contracts showed an increase of more than 2 percent, although the day before, quotes were falling on hopes of containing the conflict.

Hopes for a reduction in tension were linked to information about Iran’s readiness to de-escalate. However, the very next day the situation escalated: Iranian media reported explosions in Tehran and the activation of air defenses. At the same time, air raid sirens were sounding in Israel — particularly in Tel Aviv — after alleged missile attacks from Iran.

The situation was further complicated by former US President Donald Trump’s public call to evacuate Tehran. This only fueled fears in global markets. According to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova, the active phase of the conflict creates significant geopolitical risks that continue to weigh on investors. At the same time, expectations of new signals from the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy are also contributing to volatility in the oil market.

Iran is the third largest oil producer among OPEC countries, so any disruptions to its exports could have global consequences. Logistical routes for transporting oil, especially through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, are under threat. This increases the risks for shipping companies and contributes to the rise in energy prices.

Despite some signals about a possible return of the US to negotiations with Iran on the nuclear deal, the situation remains extremely unstable. The incidents in the Gulf of Oman only confirm that the energy market will continue to live in conditions of increased risks, and prices will remain sensitive to any geopolitical shifts.