After a rapid rise that lasted more than two years and caused a record increase in chocolate prices, the global cocoa market has suffered a sharp decline. The cost of raw materials has fallen to its lowest level in the last 20 months, which indicates the end of an unprecedented price boom.

According to the Financial Times, cocoa futures on the New York Stock Exchange this week were trading at around $6,150 per tonne. This is almost half the peak in December 2024, when a ton of cocoa cost more than $12,000. The situation in London is similar: from the April highs of last year, prices have fallen by about 58%, which was the sharpest decline in the market in recent years.

Analysts explain this decline by several factors. First, the increase in the cost of chocolate has led to a decrease in consumer demand in many countries. Second, producers and traders are expecting a better cocoa harvest thanks to improved weather conditions and efforts by governments in West Africa to support farmers. The region accounts for more than two-thirds of global cocoa production.

Another reason for the decline was a massive sell-off in speculative positions. Investors who had previously profited from record prices have now exited the market or started betting on further price declines. This change in sentiment has had a dramatic impact on market dynamics.

Government decisions in key producing countries are also playing a role. Côte d’Ivoire has raised the guaranteed purchase price for farmers by more than 25%, to around $5,000 per tonne, and Ghana has increased the rate to the equivalent of $4,600. These steps should encourage farmers to sell their cocoa through official channels rather than to smugglers, and to invest in fertilizers and plantation renewal.

Analysts expect these measures to boost global cocoa production in the medium term. At the same time, the previous poor year is behind us and the market is moving into a slight surplus. Record-high chocolate prices have reduced consumption and now buyers are driving the trends in this once “overheated” market.

After two years of excess profits and cocoa shortages, global markets are finally entering a phase of stabilization. However, for chocolate producers, this could be a breath of fresh air – cheaper raw materials are helping to reduce cost pressures and gradually lower prices for the final product.