The National Bank of Ukraine has published an updated inflation report, in which it predicts a gradual decline in inflation to 9.2% by the end of 2025. According to the regulator, the target inflation rate of 5% can be achieved by 2027, and economic growth in 2025 will be about 1.9%. In the following years, GDP growth rates are expected to be at the level of 2–3% annually.

The NBU’s baseline forecast takes into account a number of key factors. Among them are the gradual normalization of economic conditions, an increase in defense spending in 2025, the consequences of the increase in the number of shelling and destruction, as well as the need to attract significant amounts of external financing.

One of the main factors in slowing inflation will be a high supply of food. Vegetable prices are expected to remain lower than last year, and a better grain harvest will limit the rise in the price of flour, bakery products and feed, which will also stabilize meat prices.

An important role in containing inflation will be played by the NBU's measures to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia savings and the stability of the foreign exchange market. To this end, the regulator plans to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy throughout the forecast period.

At the same time, a number of risks may restrain the pace of inflation decline. Among them are electricity shortages, possible interruptions in electricity supply, as well as an increase in administratively regulated tariffs that affect household and business spending.

Given all these factors, the NBU forecasts a gradual decline in inflation: to 9.2% in 2025, to 6.6% in 2026 and to 5% by the end of 2027. Such dynamics indicate a gradual restoration of economic stability and strengthening of the country's financial system.