The global oil market in 2026 may face prolonged pressure on prices due to the rapid growth in supply, which will form a significant surplus. At the same time, geopolitical factors related to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to be a source of increased volatility, preventing the market from moving to a stable equilibrium.

These expectations are contained in the forecast of the investment bank Goldman Sachs, cited by Reuters. The bank's analysts believe that oil prices will move downward gradually this year, as the excess supply increases globally.

Goldman Sachs maintained its baseline forecast for average prices for 2026 at $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 per barrel for WTI. According to the bank, at the end of 2026, in the fourth quarter, prices may fall to minimum values ​​- about $ 54 for Brent and $ 50 for WTI. A key factor in such a scenario will be the growth of oil reserves in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Analysts emphasize that the projected increase in global reserves and the expected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026 mean the need for lower prices to restore market balance. According to them, it is the decline in quotations that can slow down the growth of production outside OPEC and at the same time support sustainable growth in demand, unless there are significant supply disruptions or new production cuts by the cartel.

Against the background of these forecasts, analysts also recalled that last year both key oil benchmarks showed the worst annual result since 2020. At the end of the year, Brent and WTI prices fell by almost 20%, reflecting weaker demand and active supply growth.

According to Goldman Sachs, US policy will remain an additional restraining factor for the growth of quotations. The orientation of American politicians to support a high supply of energy carriers and relatively low oil prices may limit the market's growth potential ahead of the mid-term elections to Congress.

At the same time, in the medium term, the bank expects a gradual recovery in prices. According to Goldman, in 2027 the market may again go into deficit due to a slowdown in non-OPEC production and the continued strong growth of global oil demand.

The average prices for Brent and WTI in 2027, according to the investment bank, will be $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively. This is $5 lower than the previous forecast, which is explained by the revision of supply estimates in 2027. In particular, Goldman Sachs increased production forecasts in the US, Venezuela and Russia by 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5 million barrels per day, respectively, which again increases the risk of a surplus in the market.