Global oil prices were little changed at the start of the week after a sharp rise in the previous trading session. Despite production disruptions in key US oil-producing regions, the market remained cautious due to general uncertainty about the balance of supply and demand. This was reported by Reuters.

Brent crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $65.81 a barrel on Monday. US WTI crude also lost 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $61.01 a barrel. Thus, the benchmarks barely moved from the levels recorded at the end of last week.

Meanwhile, both crudes finished the previous week up 2.7%, closing at their highest levels since January 14 on Friday. Geopolitical factors provided additional support for prices: a US Navy aircraft carrier strike group is expected to arrive in the Middle East region in the coming days, along with other military forces.

According to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd, oil prices are gaining momentum this week from signs of production disruptions in the US, combined with persistent geopolitical risks. At the same time, the market is being pressured by the narrative of a possible oil surplus in 2026, which is restraining a sharper rise in prices.

JPMorgan analysts noted that the US lost about 250,000 barrels per day of crude oil production due to severe weather conditions. In particular, a decrease in production was recorded in the Bakken region, as well as in a number of areas of Texas. The reason was bad weather, which complicated the operation of energy infrastructure.

As experts emphasize, winter storm Fern hit the US coast, forcing companies to temporarily stop production in key oil and gas regions and creating additional strain on the power system. Against this background, the oil market is experiencing a moderate rise, as the reduction in production narrows the physical flows of raw materials.

Traders pay special attention to geopolitical risks. Tensions in relations between the US and Iran continue to keep investors on edge. US President Donald Trump's statement that the "American armada" is heading for Iran has once again revived fears about possible supply disruptions, added a risk premium to oil prices and supported the general risk-aversion sentiment, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

On Friday, a senior Iranian official said the country would view any attack as a “full-scale war against us,” adding to market jitters. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium said it had restored full loading capacity at its Black Sea terminal after completing maintenance work on one of its three berths.

Despite this, market participants remain cautious. According to Priyanka Sachdeva, traders are now more concerned about the sustainability of the potential surplus than the occasional headline. She stressed that without significant statements from OPEC+ or major producers on production cuts, the overall oil market picture will continue to show soft structural fundamentals in 2026.