The National Bank of Ukraine has worsened its forecast for inflation dynamics in 2026. The reason was the large-scale destruction of energy infrastructure as a result of Russian shelling, which continues to affect economic processes and price formation in the country.

The change in forecast estimates was announced by NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshny during a press briefing dedicated to the decisions of the regulator's board on monetary policy. According to him, the energy factor is becoming one of the key risks to price stability in the medium term.

The National Bank emphasizes that the consequences of the disruptions in the energy sector will put pressure on prices through several channels at once. This includes both market mechanisms, in particular, an increase in the cost of production and logistics, and administrative decisions in the field of tariff policy.

An additional factor will be the effect of a low comparison base, which will strengthen price dynamics. According to the regulator, the combined impact of these factors will lead to a moderate acceleration of inflation in the second half of 2026.

Despite the expected increase in inflationary pressure in the middle of the year, the National Bank predicts that inflation will still decrease in 2026 as a whole. The updated forecast predicts a slowdown in price growth to 7.5%.

At the same time, this indicator is worse than the regulator's previous estimates. Previously, the NBU expected that inflation in 2026 would be 6.6%, but new circumstances forced it to revise the forecast upwards.

The NBU emphasizes that further inflation dynamics will largely depend on the state of the energy system, the scale of its restoration and the general security environment, and monetary policy will continue to be aimed at containing price risks and supporting macro-financial stability.