The supply of crude oil from Iraq and Kuwait could be completely stopped within a few days if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This assessment was made by analysts at J.P. Morgan, Reuters reports.

According to the bank's forecasts, possible losses in global oil supply could reach 4.7 million barrels per day. This is due to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is a key transport corridor for oil exports from the region, and its closure poses serious risks to global supplies.

The escalation of tensions began after the US and Israel struck targets in Iran. Iranian state media reported that a representative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the waterway and warned that any ship trying to pass through the strait could be attacked.

Analysts expect oil prices to remain high in the short term. Traders see the risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz as significant, especially amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

In particular, ANZ raised its average Brent price forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $90 per barrel, and its forecast for liquefied natural gas to $17 per million British thermal units. In turn, Goldman Sachs revised its average Brent price forecast for the second quarter of 2026 by $10 to $76 per barrel, and for WTI by $9 to $71. The bank also updated its forecasts for the fourth quarter: Brent — $66, WTI — $62.

The market is already feeling the effects of the tensions: Brent and US West Texas Intermediate have both risen by around 5% or more in the last two sessions, underscoring the seriousness of the threat to the global energy market.