The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by August poses serious risks to the global economy and could lead to a recession that would be similar in scale to the Great Recession of 2008. It is one of the world's most important energy routes, through which significant volumes of oil from the Persian Gulf pass.

This is reported by Bloomberg. According to the base scenario, the strait should be opened as early as July, which would partially stabilize the energy market, but significant fluctuations in demand and prices cannot be avoided.

If this scenario is implemented, the average global demand for oil is expected to decrease by about 2.6 million barrels per day. At the same time, the price of benchmark Brent oil in the summer may reach a peak value of about $ 130 per barrel, which will create additional inflationary pressure in the global economy.

However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for longer, the consequences could be much more serious. Delaying the opening of the strait until August or later would require a sharper reduction in demand to make up for the supply shortfall in August and September. This could even lead to a year-on-year decline in global oil consumption in 2026.

Analysts say that some leading forecasters are already projecting a rare drop in global oil demand this year. Such a development threatens the stability of energy markets and increases the risks of an economic slowdown in the world’s leading countries.

Oil prices are already showing a sharp increase: prices have almost doubled since the end of February. The reason for this was the escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, which destabilized global markets and increased fears of a simultaneous jump in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth.

According to estimates by the analyst firm Rapidan, delaying the opening of the strait until August will lead to a deepening of the oil market deficit in the third quarter to about 6 million barrels per day. This will happen at a time when global stocks are approaching critically low operating levels.

Even if the route resumes operations in early August, the market will remain in a state of deficit for some time. Crude oil inventories will continue to decline in September, as production in the Persian Gulf countries gradually recovers and supplies only begin to reach end consumers.