The government of Ukraine has published a forecast for 2025, according to which a slowdown in the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP), an increase in average wages and inflation, as well as a slight reduction in unemployment is expected. This is stated in the analysis of the state budget project for 2025, published by "Economic Truth".

According to the forecast, in 2025, Ukraine's GDP will grow by 2.7%, which is a decrease compared to the expected growth of 3.5% in 2024. Inflation in 2025 is forecast at 9.5%, up from 7.9% this year. The average salary will increase from 20,581 hryvnias to 24,389 hryvnias per month, while the unemployment rate will decrease from 18.2% to 17.7%.

The average annual exchange rate of the dollar in 2025 is expected to be 45 hryvnias per dollar. This is an important detail that will affect the economic situation in the country and the currency market.

As for social indicators, the government left them at the level of 2024. The minimum wage will remain at the level of 8,000 hryvnias, and the living wage will be as follows: general - 2,920 hryvnias, for persons able to work - 3,028 hryvnias, for persons who have lost their ability to work - 2,361 hryvnias.

State budget revenues in 2025 are forecast at the level of 2.336 trillion hryvnias, which is an increase of 192 billion hryvnias or 9% compared to 2024. The main increase in income will be provided by income from direct taxes, in particular, personal income taxes will increase by 158 billion hryvnias, and income tax - by 21.8 billion hryvnias.

The deficit of the state budget in 2025 is expected at the level of 19.4% of GDP, which is equal to 1.546 trillion hryvnias. To cover the deficit, the government plans to use external sources of financing, in particular, Ukraine expects to receive 1.658 trillion hryvnias from partners. Of these funds, 129.39 billion hryvnias will be spent on repaying the foreign debt, and "pure" external financing will amount to 1.529 trillion hryvnias.

On the domestic market, the government plans to raise 579.2 billion hryvnias, the main part of which will be spent on repayment of bonds placed earlier (561.9 billion hryvnias). The net attraction of domestic funds will amount to 17.2 billion hryvnias. In general, the government expects to spend 203.5 billion hryvnias on the payment of interest on the external debt, and 277.33 billion hryvnias on the domestic debt, which makes a total of 480.8 billion hryvnias.