The export of Ukrainian grain and oil crops in 2024 may reach the lowest level in the last eight years. In August and September, which were traditionally the period of active shipment of grain from Ukrainian ports, this year logistics hubs remain empty. The reason for this is the difficult situation in the transportation market, which arose due to a number of economic and military factors.

This was reported by Oleksandr Solovei, co-founder of Spike Brokers, in a comment for AgroPortal.ua. According to his forecast, the export of grain and oil crops this year will be the lowest in the last eight years, and the total volume of grain transportation will be significantly reduced, which will negatively affect market liquidity.

One of the key factors that influenced this decline is the war, which forced Ukraine to look for alternative ways to export agricultural products. According to the expert, Ukrainian business is actively developing export routes across the Danube and overland, using road and rail transport.

Over the past few years, the share of grain exports by road and rail has increased from 3% to 13%. Exports across the Danube, which had previously been largely inactive, rose from zero to 11%. Investments in the development of Danube logistics made it possible to increase the efficiency of cargo transshipment and reduce its cost, which contributed to a certain stabilization of this direction.

It is worth noting that in the previous marketing year, Ukraine exported approximately 30 million tons of corn, but this season experts predict a significant reduction in the harvest and, accordingly, in exports. It is expected that this year's corn harvest will be about 21-22 million tons.

The export potential of corn in 2024 is estimated at 15-17 million tons, which is almost half as much as last year. Such a situation will significantly affect the Ukrainian economy and the general state of the agricultural sector, which faces new challenges due to geopolitical and economic changes.