The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released an updated forecast for the 2024/2025 marketing year for the production and export of key agricultural crops in Ukraine. According to the agency, Ukrainian wheat and corn production volumes remained stable at 22.9 million and 26.5 million tons, respectively, but export forecasts indicate a decrease.

The press service of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club reports that according to the updated USDA data, wheat exports are expected to decrease by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons and corn exports by 1 million tons to 22.0 million tons to international markets.

In the global context, the forecast for 2024/2025 shows a slight increase in wheat production and consumption compared to previous estimates. In particular, total world wheat production is expected to be 793.8 million tonnes, up 0.6 million tonnes due to higher yields in Kazakhstan and Argentina.

World wheat consumption also increased by 1.8 million tonnes to 803.7 million tonnes, driven by increased feed and residue use in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine.

However, world wheat trade fell by 3.0 million tonnes to 209.0 million tonnes due to lower exports from countries such as the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. The largest decline in imports is seen in China, where imports are expected to fall by 2.5 million tonnes to 8.0 million tonnes, the lowest level in five years.

In addition, the USDA lowered its forecast for ending wheat stocks by 1.3 million tonnes to 257.6 million tonnes on the international market due to a decline in stocks in China, partially offset by increases in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

Regarding the corn market, the forecasts also show a decrease in production, consumption, trade and stocks in the world. In particular, ending corn stocks for 2024/2025 are estimated at 290.3 million tonnes, which is 3.0 million tonnes lower than previously forecast.