The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has published its wheat production forecast for 2025. According to estimates, global wheat production in 2025 will amount to 795 million tons, which will correspond to the level of 2024. However, the situation among the largest wheat-producing countries will be different, the organization notes.

In the European Union, wheat production is expected to grow significantly, reaching 135.5 million tons, which is 12% more than in 2024. This growth is due to the expansion of the sown area and improving weather conditions. However, the FAO also draws attention to the deficit of precipitation in the eastern part of the EU, which may negatively affect the overall yield in these regions.

In contrast, in Ukraine, according to FAO forecasts, wheat production will be lower than the five-year average. The main reasons for this are the ongoing armed conflict and dry weather conditions. At the same time, in Russia, wheat production is expected to decrease due to low soil moisture and a decrease in the area sown.

The situation in the United States of America is also not very favorable. Drought has affected the winter wheat crop, which will lead to a decrease in the total harvest. In Canada, on the contrary, an increase in the area under wheat is expected due to high prices, but this will be offset by a decrease in yield, which will allow production to remain at the 2024 level, but will exceed the five-year average.

The FAO also notes that global production of all cereals in 2024 is estimated at 2,849 million tons, which is 0.3% less than in the previous year. At the same time, the forecast for grain consumption in the 2024/25 marketing year is 2,868 million tons, of which 795.4 million tons are wheat and 1,534 million tons are feed grains.

In general, the situation with wheat yields in the world in 2025 will depend on many factors, including weather conditions and geopolitical factors.