Olive oil stocks in the European Union have reached a minimum, despite a slight increase in production in the 2023/24 agricultural year. The European Commission warns that other key indicators for this sector remain at a critically low level.

According to the latest agricultural sector forecast published by the Olive Oil Times, olive oil production in the EU will increase by 7% this year to 1,489,000 tonnes. However, product availability, which includes manufacturing, inventory and import, remains limited. Availability is forecast to decline 5% from the previous year and 28% from the five-year average.

At the beginning of the year, olive oil stocks were 406,000 tons, but they are expected to decrease to 365,000 tons by the end of the year. This is due to the recovery of imports from traditional trading partners such as Turkey and Tunisia, as well as producers from the Southern Hemisphere, including Argentina and Chile.

The European Commission notes that while initial stocks may look acceptable, this is largely due to lower demand both in the EU and globally. Olive oil prices have skyrocketed over the past two years, forcing many consumers to switch to cheaper cooking oils or cut back on olive oil consumption altogether.

It is expected that the consumption of olive oil in the EU will decrease to 1,189 thousand tons, which is 18.6% lower than the average figure for the previous five years. Countries with traditionally high consumption, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, will be particularly affected. According to the commission's estimates, consumption in these countries will fall below 900,000 tons, which means a significant decrease of 19.9% ​​compared to the average of the last five years.

Olive oil consumption per capita in the EU will also decrease in 2023/24 to 2.6 kilograms, which is 19.2% less than the five-year average. Although olive oil prices in stores have declined from record highs reached in mid-January, they remain well above the average of the previous five years.

As an example, prices for extra virgin olive oil in Jaen, Spain's core market, at the end of March were 2.5 to 2.7 times higher than the five-year average. The European Commission predicts that the reduced supply of olive oil means that prices will remain high in both the short and medium term.