According to estimates by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine will significantly reduce the volume of grain production and exports. According to the February FAS USDA report, the country’s total grain production will decrease by 13%, while exports will fall by 26%. Experts call the main reason for this decline the depletion of grain stocks in Ukraine, which significantly affects export potential.

Although Ukraine’s ending grain stocks this season are forecast at 1.8 million tons (which is 19% more than last year), this figure remains insignificant compared to pre-war volumes. Before the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Ukrainian grain stocks were significantly higher, which allowed the country to respond more flexibly to market changes.

The largest reduction is observed in the corn segment. Its production is expected to fall by 24% to 24.6 million tons, and exports will decrease by 33% to 19.6 million tons. Ending corn stocks will amount to 722 thousand tons, which, although exceeding last year's figure, remains significantly lower than the 2.8 million tons recorded in the 2022/23 marketing year.

The situation with wheat looks somewhat more stable: its production is forecast at 22.9 million tons, which practically corresponds to last year's level. However, wheat exports will decrease by 19% to 15 million tons. At the same time, barley production and exports will remain unchanged at 5.9 million tons and 2.6 million tons, respectively.

USDA FAS analysts note that due to such trends, the main export shipments in the 2024/25 marketing year will fall precisely on corn and wheat. Barley exports are expected to be exhausted by January, which could impact grain supply dynamics in the second half of the season.

The overall decline in grain exports from Ukraine could have implications for the global market, as the country is a key supplier of agricultural products. At the same time, the situation highlights the need for the agricultural sector to adapt to new challenges and find additional opportunities to increase production and exports.