The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has published new forecasts for inflation and price growth in the country, indicating that actual inflation rates have slightly exceeded the planned ones. According to NBU representatives, a stable decrease in retail prices should not be expected in the near future, and positive trends are possible only from mid-2025.

The NBU press service reported that according to the State Statistics Service, in January 2025, inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 12.9% in annual terms, which is 0.9% more compared to 2024, when inflation was 12%. This means that the economic situation in the country has not yet stabilized, and prices for goods and services continue to grow.

National Bank specialists note that the actual inflation rate turned out to be higher than the forecast due to several main factors. One of the main ones was a significant increase in administratively regulated prices for certain goods and services, which significantly affected the overall price level in the economy. In addition, the increase in the cost of market services caused by the increase in production costs — in particular, energy costs and wages — also became an important factor contributing to inflation.

Changes in the tax and regulatory spheres, according to the NBU, also played a role in accelerating inflationary processes. These changes, together with the increase in prices for energy resources and other important components of the economy, left an imprint on the cost of goods and services in the country.

Despite these negative trends, the National Bank predicts that a decrease in inflation and stabilization of prices are possible only from the summer of 2025. Only in the middle of the year, under favorable economic conditions, can more positive forecasts for the Ukrainian economy be expected.

At this stage, it is important, according to analysts, to focus on measures to stabilize the economic situation and maintain social standards, which will provide some hope for Ukrainian citizens regarding price reductions in the near future.