The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that inflation will continue to rise in the first half of 2025, which is due to several factors, in particular, poor harvests, increased business costs for energy supply and labor, as well as the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate.

According to data released by the NBU press service, inflationary pressure will increase due to these factors, which will create additional difficulties for the economy in the short term. Deterioration of harvests due to adverse weather conditions, increased energy sector costs and business salaries will negatively affect the price level in the country.

However, the NBU predicts that the situation will stabilize in the second half of 2025, when inflation will begin to decline. According to the bank, this process will be gradual and will contribute to achieving the NBU’s goal of reducing inflation to 5% over the medium term.

The main factors that will contribute to reducing inflation are the implementation of effective interest rate and exchange rate policy measures that will help stabilize the economic situation in the country. In addition, the situation in the agricultural sector is expected to improve due to higher harvests, as well as improvements in the energy sector and a reduction in the fiscal deficit.

Moderate external price pressure will also become an important factor in stabilizing prices, as global economic conditions may affect the level of inflation in Ukraine. The stability of the hryvnia exchange rate will also play an important role in preventing excessive price growth.

Thus, although at the beginning of 2025 the Ukrainian economy will face increased inflation, in the second half of the year the NBU expects the situation to stabilize and inflationary processes to decrease, which will allow the country to approach the planned economic goals.