Ukraine continues to actively export corn, but global climate challenges may change price dynamics in the near future. Drought in Argentina and delays in the sowing campaign in Brazil may lead to increased demand for Ukrainian grain, which, in turn, will push prices up.

Analysts of the PUSK agricultural cooperative, established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR), report that in January Ukraine exported about 2.5 million tons of corn. More than 2.15 million tons have already been contracted for February, which confirms stable demand for Ukrainian grain.

At the same time, the situation in South American countries is worrying. In Argentina, yield forecasts have been decreasing for several weeks in a row due to severe drought. Meanwhile, in Brazil, delays continue with the sowing campaign of the second corn crop. The situation is particularly difficult in the state of Mato Grosso, where excessive rainfall is preventing farmers from completing the soybean harvest, which, in turn, is delaying the sowing of corn.

Experts note that if Brazilian farmers do not manage to meet favorable deadlines, Ukraine will retain its leading position among world corn exporters in March-April. This may contribute to an increase in prices for Ukrainian grain, as global supply will decrease.

Today, the conditional cost of corn on the Ukrainian market fluctuates within 215-216 US dollars per ton. However, according to analysts' forecasts, due to a reduction in the harvest in Brazil and Argentina, the price may increase to 225-230 US dollars per ton. This will bring the cost of corn closer to the prices of feed wheat, which may create additional pressure on the agricultural market.

The following weeks will be decisive for the grain market. If analysts' forecasts come true, Ukrainian producers should carefully monitor price dynamics and consider the possibility of fixing contracts on more favorable terms.