In March 2025, China's manufacturing sector showed the highest level of activity in the past 12 months. The main factor of growth was new orders, which stimulated manufacturing enterprises and provided a temporary strengthening of the world's second largest economy. The growth occurred against the backdrop of the ongoing trade war with the United States, which significantly complicates the conditions for exporting Chinese goods.

This was reported by Reuters, citing official data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The Chinese government's fiscal policy aimed at supporting business played a significant role in supporting the economic recovery. In addition, foreign buyers have intensified purchases, fearing increased trade restrictions from the United States. However, experts warn that this period of economic growth may be short-lived, as US President Donald Trump is preparing to announce new tariffs on Chinese products, which will further exacerbate the trade conflict.

According to official data, Trump has imposed a 20% general tariff on Chinese imports since the beginning of the year. He has also accused Beijing of not doing enough to combat the supply of chemicals used to produce fentanyl in the United States. The new round of sanctions is expected to hit Chinese exports even harder and could cause a downturn in the manufacturing sector.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 points in March, the highest level since March 2024. At the same time, the non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors, also rose to 50.8 points. These indicators indicate positive trends in the economy, despite external threats.

Economists note that fiscal support and spending on infrastructure projects currently play a key role in maintaining the stability of the Chinese economy. Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard emphasized that the existing budget allows for continued stimulation of the economy. At the same time, according to him, a likely new increase in tariffs in the United States in the near future will put pressure on Chinese exports and may negatively affect the overall economic dynamics.

The Chinese government, despite the threats of a trade war, maintains its economic forecast at 5% GDP growth in 2025. The country's authorities plan to compensate for potential losses from exports by expanding domestic demand, issuing additional bonds and continuing to ease monetary policy. A positive signal for the domestic market was the increase in the new orders index to 51.8 points - the highest level in the last year.

Thus, although China is showing signs of economic growth, the future prospects remain uncertain due to the risks of an escalation of the trade conflict with the US. Beijing's main strategy at present is to stimulate domestic demand and strengthen support for key sectors of the economy.