In April 2025, consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 15.1% in annual terms, and monthly inflation was 0.7%, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reports. Despite the acceleration of price growth, it turned out to be slightly lower than the regulator's forecast. The main reasons for the inflationary pressure were the consequences of poor harvests, higher prices for alcohol and tobacco, as well as high business costs for labor in conditions of labor shortage.

As explained by the NBU, last year's poor harvest continues to affect the food supply, which especially affected the cost of borscht, fruit, cereals and flour. At the same time, festive factors also played a role: due to Easter, which fell in April, the demand for some products, in particular eggs, increased significantly, which further heated up prices.

Although the arrival of imported products and greenhouse vegetables partially mitigated this effect, overall food prices continued to rise. According to the regulator, enterprises' costs for raw materials and wages became the main factor in the increase in the price of bakery products, meat and meat products. At the same time, oil prices grew more slowly due to stabilization in foreign markets, and an increase in the production of some dairy products restrained the increase in prices in this category.

The segment of excisable products, in particular alcohol and tobacco, was also marked by a significant increase in value. This is due to tax innovations that came into effect at the end of March, in particular the conversion of excise duties into euros and their increase. Combined with the increase in production costs, this significantly affected the prices of this category of goods.

The NBU pays special attention to the pharmaceutical segment and the fuel market. The strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar had a positive effect on the prices of medicines, medical goods and equipment. Regarding fuel, price growth slowed in April, which the regulator attributes to the fall in oil prices on world markets. At the same time, the strengthening of the euro and the recovery in fuel demand partially offset this effect, keeping prices from falling significantly.

Despite the ongoing pressure on consumer prices, the National Bank has recorded signs of easing inflationary pressures. According to its estimates, both headline and core inflation were lower than expected, and seasonally adjusted monthly dynamics indicate stabilization. The NBU predicts that inflation will decline again in the summer, and by the end of the year it will drop to single digits.