After the end of the "visa-free trade" regime with the European Union, Ukraine will face the resumption of stricter restrictions on agricultural exports. According to Oleksandra Avramenko, head of the European Integration Committee of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UKAB), from June 5, 2025, the EU will return to the old quota mechanisms, which cover not 7, but more than 30 commodity items.

The duty-free trade regime, introduced in connection with the full-scale war, allowed Ukrainian exporters to temporarily have full access to the European market. However, the new transitional format provides for only a partial renewal - 7/12 of the pre-war annual quotas that were provided for in the trade part of the 2014 Association Agreement.

This means a significant reduction in export opportunities for a number of important items. For example, the quota for wheat exports to the EU will be reduced from 6 million tons to 1 million tons, corn from 4.7 million to 650 thousand tons, and sugar to only 20 thousand tons. At the same time, raw materials traditionally fill quotas faster, leaving manufacturers of finished goods unable to enter the market.

According to Avramenko, value-added producers will suffer the most from the change in rules - in particular, those who export flour, cereals, dairy products, tomato paste. The return to tariffs and restrictions will significantly reduce the profitability of this business and threaten the loss of established export channels.

UCAB notes that the situation is also complicated by the fact that the European Commission is currently not ready to revise Article 29 of the Association Agreement, which regulates trade conditions. The reason is internal political tension in some EU countries, in particular the elections in Poland. It is expected that negotiations on this issue may not begin before the summer of 2025 and continue until the fall. In the event of reaching new agreements, their implementation is possible only from 2026.

The key requirement for further liberalization of exports will remain the compliance of Ukrainian agricultural products with European standards. This creates an additional burden on business in conditions of war, unstable logistics and financial risks. At the same time, the European Commission is trying to balance between supporting Ukraine and protecting its own markets. The "7/12" proposal is an attempt at a compromise that makes it possible to avoid a sharp decline in Ukrainian exports, but does not provide full access.

Oleksandra Avramenko emphasizes that without a quick resumption of negotiations, the situation may rapidly deteriorate: products that remain in Ukraine will lose in price, which will lead to losses and loss of markets for many exporters. In this situation, in her opinion, the adaptation of the agricultural sector to new conditions and the urgent resumption of dialogue with European partners are critically important.