One sixth of the wheat harvest of the Ukrainian marketing year is located in the temporarily occupied territories. The total wheat production in Ukraine in 2023 will amount to 25-26.5 mln tons, of which 21-22 mln tons will be harvested in the government-controlled areas and 4.1-4.4 mln tons in the occupied territories. These data were obtained from a satellite analysis conducted by NASA Harvest, a food security and agriculture program.

The satellite analysis also showed that wheat yields in the occupied territories are lower than in the rest of Ukraine. However, the overall yield is higher than last season. On average, the yield will be 4.27 tons per hectare for the whole of Ukraine, including 4.53 tons per hectare in the government-controlled area and 3.3 tons per hectare in the occupied territory.

The area under wheat is currently estimated at 5.8-6.2 million hectares, of which 4.6-4.9 million hectares are in the government-controlled areas and 1.2-1.3 million hectares are in the temporarily occupied territories.

The estimate of wheat production for this year is close to last year's due to a smaller planted area and higher yields compared to the previous year. However, it will be slightly lower than the average for the five years before the war, which was 27.9 million tons.

It is important to note that the analysis assumes that all the wheat planted will be harvested, but satellites cannot provide information on who harvested the crop and whether Ukraine will be able to benefit economically from its fertile farmland. Such questions remain open and require further study.